The expensive liberation of northern Mali – Islamists in waiting – anxious civilians – discontented Tuareg

According to the Society for Threatened Peoples (STP), France has now – one year after the beginning of the military intervention in Mali – accomplished some, but by far not all goals of the "Operation Serval". The reign of terror by radical Islamists in northern Mali has come to an end and the extremists were driven out of the cities. "But the Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQMI) continues to commit terror attacks and might be able to regroup if some of the French troops leave the country as planned," warned the STP's Africa-expert, Ulrich Delius, in Göttingen on Friday. "Mali's army will hardly be able to protect the civilian population from new attacks by the extremists. Many of those who fled are still in fear of returning to northern Mali." There are still about 422,000 people on the run – and the Tuareg conflict that evolved from the civil war still remains unresolved. It is also unclear how and when the arrested Islamist extremists will be held accountable for their human rights violations before a court.

Originally, France had planned to withdraw the troops in March 2013. But the objective of breaking up the Islamist networks was so complex that a timely troop withdrawal seemed impossible. By the end of November of 2013, French fighter planes had dropped more than 200 bombs on northern Mali. Hundreds of Islamist fighters were killed, but their underground tunnel systems in the Mountain ranges in the north-east of the country continue still exist and are still in use. In December 2013, French soldiers were able to secure almost six tons of explosives that could have been used for terrorist attacks. They also discovered an underground training center that had still been occupied by Islamist fighters a few days before. The French intervention costs more than 1.8 million Euros per day. According to French military experts, the total costs will sum up to approximately 650 million Euros.

"There is still no safety in northern Mali," said Delius. Most of the 254,000 IDPs and 168,000 refugees in the neighboring countries could not yet imagine returning to their homes. There are still serious tensions between the Tuareg fighters and the Malian army, especially in the region of Kidal. Many Malians accuse France of protecting the fighters of the Tuareg movement MNLA in order to win them over as allies in the struggle against the AQMI. France had always pointed out that there would be no safety in northern Mali without a political solution to the Tuareg question. However, the majority of the population is not prepared to compromise with the Tuareg, but would prefer them to be disarmed and punished. Mali's President, Ibrahim Boubacar Keita, does not approve of granting the Tuareg autonomy, but has not managed to develop any other significant initiatives to solve the Tuareg conflict. The Tuareg are already planning a new call to arms. "Northern Mali is now facing a similar situation as in January 2012, when the Tuareg started their armed revolt," said Delius. "The chance for a new beginning was wasted – in northern Mali and in the capital city of Bamako, where the political leaders are still corrupt and continue to misuse their power. The low turnout of only 38% in the parliamentary elections is a clear sign that there are small chances to realize the European ideas for a democratic renewal in Mali."