Fighting without a plan

The Society for Threatened Peoples (STP) demands a realistic perspective to a long-term stabilization of northern Mali. "The French military intervention was necessary to prevent the radical Islamists from gaining even more ground. However, the military success will only be symbolic if there is no credible plan on how to force back the radical Islamists on a long-term basis," said the STP's expert on questions regarding Africa, Ulrich Delius, in Göttingen on Monday. "The Islamists will quickly return to their approved tactics of leaving the few cities to seek shelter in caves and mountainous regions and regroup there. Anyone who thinks this could help to stabilize Mali is mistaken. "This would only be a Pyrrhic victory. Neither would the about 400,000 refugees be able to return to their homes, nor would this solve any of northern Mail's problems in the long run."

Last Friday, France managed to create precedents and start a counter-offensive. "But – despite this activism – it is still not yet clear who will lead the offensive, what objectives are to be pursued and by what means," criticized Delius. In December 2012, the UN Ambassador of the United States, Susan Rice, had caused a diplomatic crisis between Washington and Paris by saying that the intervention plan proposed by France and ECOWAS were absolutely inadequate. During his visit to neighboring Niger last Friday, even the commander of the US troops in Africa (AFRICOM), General Carter Ham, stressed the necessity of a highly accurate and well-conceived plan for a successfully intervention in Mali.

"The absence of a realistic overall concept also applies for the European Military Training Mission in Mali," said Delius. It is supposed to start in February – also with help from Germany. However, the mission raises more questions than it can provide answers. It is not yet clear how Mali's desolate army should be stabilized effectively, how command structures are to be adapted, how the militias could be integrated or how to make sure that Mali's freshly trained soldiers will also respect human rights. Since the civil war started in January 2012, even the Malian troops did not spare the civilians and committed assaults against them.

Above all, it is still not clear whether the government in Bamako will accept more autonomy for northern Mali, as the Tuareg have been demanding for years. "Without concessions in this direction, it will be difficult to stabilize northern Mali in the long run." warned Delius.